RE4009 Uncertainty and Recovery Mechanism Syllabus:
RE4009 Uncertainty and Recovery Mechanism Syllabus – Anna University PG Syllabus Regulation 2021
OBJECTIVES:
To Understand uncertainty and impact levels
To Understand risks assessment and controlling risks
To Gain knowledge on Real Estate risks, Forecasting, response and challenges
To Acquire an understanding of recovery mechanism choices, criteria and decisions making
To Gain knowledge on Strategic Planning dealt with uncertainty
UNIT I UNCERTAINTY
Uncertainty matters, definitions, types – uncertainty foreshadow- impact levels and output – investment & employment – ‘fiscal cliff’- roots of political polarisation Managing in extreme uncertainty- Future Uncertainty- Historic or Forecast Return Variability- Forecast Return Uncertainty – Making Decisions Under Uncertainty – Uncertainty Versus Risk
UNIT II UNDERSTANDING RISKS
Risk categories – risk management – risk response measures- Making Decisions Under Risk- Risk and Insurance – assessing and controlling risks and uncertainties.
UNIT III RISK & UNCERTAINTY IN REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT
Evaluating Risk in Real Estate – Risk across projects, types and stages – short-term shock and long term impact of the epidemic on the real estate industry – Measuring Real Estate Risk – decisions and response measures- Forecast Return Uncertainty –- resource challenges- proactive responses – comparing current pandemic to other pandemics Tools and mechanism: mitigate and manage uncertainty
UNIT IV RECOVERY MECHANISM
Decision theory – Types of decisions- Choices under uncertainty- uncertainty models – decision making models – decision rules – resources allocations and applications – approaches – Alternatives – decision makers interactions – property developers and related response mechanisms – Economic recovery and policy rehabilitations
UNIT V BEST PRACTICES AND CASESTUDIES
Strategic Planning Under Severe Uncertainty – Examples dealt with uncertainty – role of emotions – changes derived in financial market – case studies
TOTAL: 45 PERIODS
OUTCOMES:
CO1 The students will know and understand the broader spectrum of uncertainty in its varied context
CO2 The students will gain knowledge on risk management, impact, response and challenges
CO3 The students understand how risk and uncertainty impact real estate design and development viability.
CO4 Students will gain exposure on models and theory of choices and decisions making
CO5 The student will be equipped with tools to manage and plan for uncertainty and risks in the realm of real estate.
REFERENCES
1. Bloom, Nicholas, Max Floetotto, Nir Jaimovich, Itay Saporta and Stephen Terry (2012) “Really Uncertain Business Cycles”.
2. Bloom, Nicholas (2009) “The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks”, Econometrica.
3. Bloom, Nicholas, Steven Bond and John Van Reenen (2007) “Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics”
4. Regev, Sary; Shtub, Avraham; Ben-Haim, Yakov (2006). “Managing project risks as knowledge gaps”.
5. Yakov Ben-Haim, Information-Gap Theory: Decisions Under Severe Uncertainty, Academic Press, London, 2001.
6. Raiffa, Howard (1997). Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty. McGraw Hill.
7. Burgman, Mark, 2005, Risks and Decisions for Conservation and Environmental Management, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.