EY4092 Energy Forecasting, Modeling and Project Management Syllabus:
EY4092 Energy Forecasting, Modeling and Project Management Syllabus – Anna University PG Syllabus Regulation 2021
COURSE OBJECTIVES:
1. To impart knowledge about the present status of energy scenario in India.
2. To predict the energy demand using various forecasting models.
3. To develop an optimization model for the effective utilization of energy sources.
4. To understand and learn the procedure to the write the project proposal.
5. To learn the present status of energy policies in the country.
UNIT- I ENERGY SCENARIO
Role of energy in economic development and social transformation: Energy & GDP, GNP and its dynamics – Energy Sources and Overall Energy demand and Availability – Energy Consumption in various sectors and its changing pattern –Status of Nuclear and Renewable Energy: Present Status and future promise.
UNIT- II FORECASTING MODEL
Forecasting Techniques – Regression Analysis – Double Moving Average – Double Experimental Smoothing – Triple Exponential Smoothing – ARIMA model- Validation techniques – Qualitative forecasting–Delphi technique-Concept of Neural Net Works.
UNIT- III OPTIMIZATION MODEL
Principles of Optimization – Formulation of Objective Function – Constraints – Multi Objective Optimization–Mathematical Optimization Software–Development of Energy Optimization Model Development of Scenarios– Sensitivity Analysis-Concept of Fuzzy Logic.
UNIT- IV PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Project Preparation – Feasibility Study – Detailed Project Report – Project Appraisal – Social-cost benefit Analysis – Project Cost Estimation – Project Risk Analysis – Project Financing – Financial Evaluation.
UNIT- V ENERGY POLICY
National & State Level Energy Issues – National & State Energy Policy – Energy Security –National solar mission – state solar energy policy – Framework of Central Electricity Authority(CEA),Central & States Electricity Regulatory Commissions (CERC & ERCs)- Costing.
COURSE OUTCOMES:
Upon completion of this course, the students will be able to:
1. Illustrate the energy scenario and appraise energy availability
2. Predict energy demand using various forecasting models.
3. Develop different optimization model for energy planning.
4. Formulate project proposal and financial evaluation.
5. Interpret the national and state energy policies.
REFERENCES:
1. ArmstrongJ.Scott (ed.), Principles of forecasting: a handbook for researchers and practitioners, Norwell, Massachusetts:Kluwer Academic Publishers.2001.
2. Dhandapani Alagiri, Energy Security in India Current Scenario, the ICFAI University Press,2006.
3. Fred Luthans, BrettC. Luthan, KyleW.Luthans, Organisational Behaviour: An Evidence-Based Approach, Information Age Publishing;13edition,2015
4. Spyros G. Makridakis, Steven C.Wheelwright, Rob J.Hyndman, Forecasting:Methods and Applications, 4th Edition,ISBN:978-0-471-53233-0,2003
5. YangX.S.,Introduction to mathematical optimization:From linear programming to Metaheuristics,Cambridge, Int. Science Publishing,2008.